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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SEA 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 83-D.Moore ran ob at SEA 36 for 3 yards (48-T.Howard).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model