Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-N.Webster pushed ob at LA 21 for 11 yards (25-T.Homer). PENALTY on LA-20-J.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LA 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model