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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model