Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 27 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to SF 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 36 for 9 yards (48-J.Gray). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed Jr., Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model