4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SF
41.3%
NO
58.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.243 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.148 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO on 3 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

SF 25
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SF

Jaquiski Tartt S Out Ribs
Jullian Taylor DT Out Elbow
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Knee
Dante Pettis WR Questionable Knee
Joe Staley T Questionable Finger

NO

Kiko Alonso LB Out Thigh
A.J. Klein LB Out Knee
Zach Line RB Out Knee
Andrus Peat G Out Forearm
Jason Vander Laan TE Out Head
Will Clapp C Questionable Elbow
Patrick Robinson CB Questionable Calf
Terron Armstead T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 48
–
NO 46

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 42 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:42 TD NO (11:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 87-J.Cook for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 18, YAC 20 SF 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 08:31 TD SF (8:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 0 SF 6 – NO 7
  • Q1 04:58 TD NO (4:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 87-J.Cook for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-87-J.Cook was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 26, YAC 0 PENALTY on SF-23-A.Witherspoon, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. SF 7 – NO 13
  • Q2 15:00 TD NO (15:00) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 89-J.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 2 INJURY UPDATE: SF #55 D.Ford, hamstring, QUESTIONABLE to return. SF 7 – NO 19
  • Q2 14:57 TD SF (14:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-E.Sanders for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 49, YAC 26 SF 13 – NO 20
  • Q2 07:31 TD NO (7:31) 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – NO 26
  • Q2 06:08 TD SF (6:08) 17-E.Sanders pass deep right to 31-R.Mostert for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Garoppolo handed off to Samuel, who lateralled back to Sanders, who threw to Mostert. Pass 22, YAC 13. SF 20 – NO 27
  • Q2 00:45 TD SF (:45) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – NO 27
  • Q3 12:41 FG NO (12:41) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. SF 28 – NO 30
  • Q3 09:46 TD SF (9:46) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 0, YAC 5 SF 34 – NO 30
  • Q3 04:56 FG NO (4:56) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. SF 35 – NO 33
  • Q4 09:06 TD SF (9:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 41 – NO 33
  • Q4 06:12 TD NO (6:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 7 SF 42 – NO 39
  • Q4 02:28 FG SF (2:28) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 45 – NO 40
  • Q4 01:00 TD NO (1:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 10-T.Smith for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 13 SF 45 – NO 46
  • Q4 00:02 FG SF (:02) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 48 – NO 46

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (7:31) 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:25) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to SF 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 36 for 9 yards (48-J.Gray). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed Jr., Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 30.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 65%

    (12:41) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:41) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to NO 20, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 55%

    (6:29) 60-P.Omameh reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left guard to SF 36 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 79%

    (4:56) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:06) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to NO 38, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.Harris to 50 for 12 yards (53-M.Nzeocha). INJURY UPDATE: New Orleans #98 S.Rankins, ankle, QUESTIONABLE to return.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 18 at the 45
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 44%

    (1:03) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete deep right to 10-T.Smith (33-T.Moore).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (2:28) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to NO 28 for 39 yards (43-M.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on NO-43-M.Williams, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at NO 28. Pass 7, YAC 31