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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 27 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model