4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 28 – New Orleans Saints 30

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to NO 20, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model