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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 30 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model