Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 35 – New Orleans Saints 33

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to NO 38, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.Harris to 50 for 12 yards (53-M.Nzeocha). INJURY UPDATE: New Orleans #98 S.Rankins, ankle, QUESTIONABLE to return.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model