Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 33 – San Francisco 49ers 35

(1:03) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete deep right to 10-T.Smith (33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

What Happened

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.27 EP
77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP

KICK -0.53 EP

44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
56% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP