4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 42 – New Orleans Saints 40

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.45 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model