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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 90

Tennessee Titans 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to LV 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 47 for 12 yards (51-D.Long).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.61 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model