TEN @ OAK — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Vrabel

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HC Jon Gruden

Sunday 2019-12-08 · 16:25 Ring Central Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

TEN

38.6%

OAK

61.4%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.167 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.067 EPA/dropback
LV defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
LV offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 24

–

OAK 26

Projected margin: OAK by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

TEN

Derick Roberson LB Out Illness

Daren Bates LB Out Shoulder

Adam Humphries WR Out Ankle

Adoree' Jackson CB Out Foot

LeShaun Sims CB Out Ankle

Tajae Sharpe WR Questionable Hamstring

OAK

Trenton Brown T Out Pectoral

Hunter Renfrow WR Out Rib

Kyle Wilber LB Out Ankle

Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Shoulder

Marquel Lee LB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 42

–

OAK 21

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:49 TD LV (7:49) 33-D.Washington right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – OAK 6
Q1 03:27 TD TEN (3:27) 22-D.Henry left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – OAK 7
Q2 14:16 TD TEN (14:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-C.Ferrell]. TEN 13 – OAK 7
Q2 10:50 TD LV (10:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-R.Gafford for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – OAK 13
Q2 06:58 TD TEN (6:58) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – OAK 14
Q2 00:28 TD LV (:28) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – OAK 20
Q3 05:40 TD TEN (5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – OAK 21
Q4 14:36 TD TEN (14:36) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 81-J.Smith for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 34 – OAK 21
Q4 13:25 TD TEN (13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller to LV 48 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), RECOVERED by TEN-55-J.Brown at LV 47. 55-J.Brown for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 41 – OAK 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

(14:23) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to TEN 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 43

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 45%

(10:35) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-25-E.Harris.
Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(8:56) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to LV 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 47 for 12 yards (51-D.Long).
Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 26%

(8:11) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(3:28) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(10:36) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.
Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(7:53) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to LV 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.
Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

(3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.