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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model