Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 42 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

(7:53) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to LV 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model