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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 9-R.Allen punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model