4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

ATL
33.1%
SF
66.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.186 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
SF 27
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ATL

Allen Bailey DE Out Not Injury Related
James Carpenter G Out Concussion
Ty Sambrailo T Out Hamstring
Isaiah Oliver CB Questionable Shoulder

SF

Dee Ford DE Out Quadricep
D.J. Jones DT Out Ankle
Richard Sherman CB Out Hamstring
Jaquiski Tartt S Out Ribs
Jullian Taylor DT Out Elbow
K'Waun Williams CB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 29
–
SF 22

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:59 TD SF (12:59) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 07:06 TD ATL (7:06) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 0. 0-yac ATL 6 – SF 7
  • Q2 02:41 FG ATL (2:41) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 10 – SF 7
  • Q2 00:27 FG SF (:27) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. ATL 10 – SF 10
  • Q3 05:20 FG SF (5:20) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. ATL 10 – SF 13
  • Q4 10:12 TD SF (10:12) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ATL 1. 1-yac ATL 10 – SF 19
  • Q4 05:20 TD ATL (5:20) 30-Q.Ollison up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – SF 19
  • Q4 01:52 FG SF (1:52) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. ATL 17 – SF 22
  • Q4 00:05 TD ATL (:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – SF 22
  • Q4 00:02 TD ATL 7-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SF 22 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at SF 3, RECOVERED by ATL-17-O.Zaccheaus at SF 0. TOUCHDOWN. ATL 29 – SF 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:09) 9-R.Allen punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:40) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ATL 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 41 for 2 yards (31-R.Mostert).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 24%

    (8:45) 9-R.Allen punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 63%

    (3:06) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at ATL 31 for 5 yards (45-D.Jones). Caught at ATL 38. 7-yac

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:22) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to ATL 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 35 for 7 yards (31-R.Mostert).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (2:41) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:27) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 24%

    (12:49) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to ATL 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to SF 49 for 40 yards (53-M.Nzeocha). PENALTY on ATL-35-J.Carter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 16.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 19 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:21) 9-R.Allen punts 53 yards to SF 37, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 80%

    (5:20) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:45) 9-R.Allen punts 53 yards to SF 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:52) 9-R.Allen punts 47 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 7 yards (82-R.Dwelley). FUMBLES (82-R.Dwelley), RECOVERED by SF-44-K.Juszczyk at ATL 15. 44-K.Juszczyk to ATL 1 for 14 yards (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 85%

    (1:52) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.