Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 90

Atlanta Falcons 10 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(9:21) 9-R.Allen punts 53 yards to SF 37, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.19 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model