Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 10 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(13:52) 9-R.Allen punts 47 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.96 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model