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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.66 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model