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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 9-R.Allen punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.21 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.98 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model