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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(11:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.87 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model