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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 20:20 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🥶 Cold Spread 1.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

BUF
41.3%
PIT
58.7%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: -0.180 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Devlin Hodges (PIT) +0.183 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.004 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 21
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

BUF

Ty Nsekhe T Out Ankle
Jon Feliciano G Questionable Illness
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Knee

PIT

Vance McDonald TE Out Concussion
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Knee
James Conner RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 17
–
PIT 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:26 TD BUF (14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 11:31 FG PIT (11:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BUF 7 – PIT 3
  • Q3 11:24 TD PIT (11:24) 6-D.Hodges pass short right to 30-J.Conner for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – PIT 9
  • Q4 12:27 FG BUF (12:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 10 – PIT 10
  • Q4 08:00 TD BUF (8:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Kroft for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – PIT 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:21) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to PIT 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:16) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to PIT 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:56) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 22 yards to PIT 40, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 63%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 15-J.Brown pushed ob at PIT 26 for 10 yards (22-S.Nelson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 74%

    (11:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%

    (8:06) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to PIT 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 26 for 13 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:33) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to BUF 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 36 for 20 yards (44-T.Matakevich). PENALTY on BUF-57-L.Alexander, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 28.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 16 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:55) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to BUF 36, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:54) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to PIT 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 31 for 7 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 92%

    (12:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BUF 30, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:37) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to BUF 23, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:21) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to PIT 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 17-D.Cain INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:40) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to PIT 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-K.Coleman.