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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:06) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to PIT 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 26 for 13 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model