Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

(6:55) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to BUF 36, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.21 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model