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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to PIT 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 31 for 7 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model