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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 18

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model