Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Buffalo Bills 17

(7:37) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to BUF 23, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model