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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 17-D.Cain INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP