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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to PIT 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-K.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.57 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model