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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 82

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:56) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 22 yards to PIT 40, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.42 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model