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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 15-J.Brown pushed ob at PIT 26 for 10 yards (22-S.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model