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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP