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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
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KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 10.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DEN
30.1%
KC
69.9%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.280 vs Drew Lock (DEN) +0.278 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
KC 27
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DEN

Adam Gotsis DE Out Knee
Ja'Wuan James T Out Knee
Ronald Leary G Out Concussion
DeMarcus Walker DE Out Ankle
Juwann Winfree WR Out Hamstring
Dre'Mont Jones DE Questionable Ankle
Joseph Jones LB Questionable Back
Noah Fant TE Questionable Hip

KC

Morris Claiborne CB Out Shoulder
Rashad Fenton CB Out Hamstring
Damien Williams RB Questionable Rib
Frank Clark DE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 3
–
KC 23

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:50 TD KC (9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 13:02 FG KC (13:02) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 0 – KC 9
  • Q2 06:27 FG KC (6:27) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 0 – KC 12
  • Q2 02:00 FG DEN (2:00) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 3 – KC 12
  • Q2 00:02 FG KC (:02) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 3 – KC 15
  • Q3 09:50 TD KC (9:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – KC 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:51) 6-C.Wadman to DEN 33 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at DEN 34. 6-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to KC 18. 17-M.Hardman to KC 16 for -2 yards (27-D.Harris). PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 16.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:52) 6-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to KC 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (13:02) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:57) 6-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to KC 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 25 for no gain (27-D.Harris).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (6:27) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 22%

    (3:46) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 87-N.Fant to KC 9 for 43 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-87-N.Fant was injured during the play.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (2:00) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 83%

    (:02) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:05) 6-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to KC 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:17) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 44 for 8 yards (13-B.Pringle). PENALTY on KC-13-B.Pringle, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DEN 44.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 14 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 46%

    (9:40) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Hamilton [55-F.Clark].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:05) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to DEN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-A.Brown.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 69%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Hamilton [92-T.Kpassagnon]. Denver challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 04:47.)