4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 14

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 12

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model