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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 12 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model