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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 57

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 6-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to KC 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model