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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 44 for 8 yards (13-B.Pringle). PENALTY on KC-13-B.Pringle, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DEN 44.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.31 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model