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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 33

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Hamilton [92-T.Kpassagnon]. Denver challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 04:47.)

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP