Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 89

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(12:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to LV 44, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.17 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 89, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model