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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 16:05 Ring Central Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

JAX
30.4%
OAK
69.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.133 vs Gardner Minshew (JAX) -0.055 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
OAK 26
Projected margin: OAK by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

JAX

D.J. Chark WR Out Ankle

OAK

Hunter Renfrow WR Out Rib
Marquel Lee LB Questionable Toe
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Neck
Marcell Ateman WR Questionable Ribs
Trenton Brown T Questionable Pectoral
Erik Harris S Questionable Hamstring
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
OAK 16

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:38 TD LV (11:38) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 16-T.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 08:12 FG JAX (8:12) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – OAK 7
  • Q1 04:56 FG LV (4:56) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. JAX 3 – OAK 10
  • Q2 02:24 FG LV (2:24) 8-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. JAX 3 – OAK 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG LV (:02) 8-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. JAX 3 – OAK 16
  • Q3 00:32 FG JAX (:32) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – OAK 16
  • Q4 05:20 TD JAX (5:20) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – OAK 16
  • Q4 00:34 TD JAX (:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – OAK 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (8:12) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (4:56) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to LV 15, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-40-B.Watson.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to LV 44, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to LV 48, Center-46-M.Orzech. 30-J.Richard to 50 for 2 yards (22-Co.Davis).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (2:24) 8-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to LV 22, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 66 yards to LV 3, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-40-B.Watson.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 29%

    (9:01) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to JAX 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-34-R.Smith.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:56) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to JAX 42 for 1 yard (35-C.Riley).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 81%

    (1:48) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.