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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to LV 22, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model