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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to JAX 42 for 1 yard (35-C.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.78 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model