4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.70 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model