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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.59 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model