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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to NYG 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP