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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread 3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

MIA
47.7%
NYG
52.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA): -0.044 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

Walt Aikens S Out Not Injury Related
Tae Hayes CB Out Not Injury Related
Gerald Willis DT Out Hip
Chandler Cox RB Doubtful Shoulder
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Concussion
Albert Wilson WR Questionable Concussion

NYG

Evan Engram TE Out Foot
Kevin Zeitler G Out Ankle
Rhett Ellison TE Out Concussion
Daniel Jones QB Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
NYG 36

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:08 TD MIA (9:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Parker for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence II]. MIA 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 08:12 TD NYG (8:12) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 15-G.Tate for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-40-N.Needham, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. MIA 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 00:47 FG MIA (:47) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 10 – NYG 7
  • Q3 11:59 TD NYG (11:59) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – NYG 13
  • Q3 08:49 FG MIA (8:49) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 13 – NYG 14
  • Q3 06:24 SAF NYG (6:24) 42-P.Laird right tackle tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (23-S.Beal). MIA 13 – NYG 16
  • Q3 05:22 TD NYG (5:22) 26-S.Barkley left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – NYG 22
  • Q4 15:00 TD NYG (15:00) 26-S.Barkley left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – NYG 29
  • Q4 04:46 TD NYG (4:46) 37-J.Allen right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – NYG 36
  • Q4 02:01 TD MIA (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 11-D.Parker for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – NYG 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 68%

    (10:44) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (2:24) 42-P.Laird right guard to NYG 13 for -3 yards (24-J.Love, 94-D.Tomlinson).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (14:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to MIA 11, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 22%

    (5:12) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to NYG 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (:47) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 72%

    (8:49) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to MIA 5, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-69-C.Holba. PENALTY on MIA-97-T.Harris, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIA 5.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:24) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to NYG 25, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-D.Scott pushed ob at NYG 34 for 9 yards (34-D.Turner).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 32%

    (12:52) 2-M.Haack punts 29 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 23, Center-69-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:40) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep right to 84-I.Ford.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 68%

    (2:26) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to NYG 29 for 2 yards (90-R.McIntosh, 29-D.Bucannon).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to MIA 26, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG.