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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:47) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +3.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.62 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP