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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 10 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model