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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 58

New York Giants 14 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to MIA 5, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-69-C.Holba. PENALTY on MIA-97-T.Harris, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIA 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model